Drought declared in parts of Tonga

Nuku'alofa, TONGA — Tonga Meteorology has declared a drought for the islands of Tongatapu and 'Eua, with alerts for Niuafo'ou and Niuatoputapu, and warnings for Ha'apai and Vava'u this month.

A rain deficit is forecast for the coming months as the impacts of an El Niño take hold across the region.

In the last three months, the rainfall in Tongatapu has been below average.

Local media report that until December, Tongatapu, Vava'u, Ha'apai, and 'Eua, should expect 30 percent less rainfall than usual. Niuafo'ou and Niuatoputapu are forecast to receive 20 percent less.

The public has been urged to use rainwater and tap water efficiently, in order to conserve supplies.

The El Niño Alert for Tonga continues, with El Niño development likely during the September to December period, as the criteria for the alert have been met. In previous years, when El Niño Alert criteria have been met, an El Niño event has developed about 70 per cent of the time.

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Pacific are exceeding El Niño thresholds, with climate models indicating this is likely to continue at least through to early 2024.

In July, the World Meteorological Organization declared the onset of El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific, for the first time in seven years. This sets the stage for a likely surge in global temperatures and disruptive weather and climate patterns.

In September, Vanuatu declared an El Niño weather event for the country. According to the Vanuatu Meteorological and Geo-Hazards Department people should expect drier conditions in the coming months, during the event.

SAMOA WEATHER OFFICE KEEPS AN EYE ON DRY SPELL

Samoa is experiencing dry weather and the Samoa Meteorological Office says it will provide updates on potential course of action if conditions get drier.

Assistant Chief Executive Officer of the Samoa Meteorological Services, Afaese Dr. Luteru Tauvale told the Samoa Observer that the El Nino weather pattern is to blame for the dry conditions that Samoa is currently experiencing. 

“The La Nina is classified according to the movement of the warm sea surface temperature within the Pacific region," said Afaese. "For the last three years, we were in the La Nina season where we experienced a lot of rainfall and flooding. 

"But for this year we have switched to the opposite, El Nino which is low rainfall and we are starting to see that. We are still monitoring and just by basic observation, conditions are getting drier noticeably as the grass has become drier and starting to get brown. 

"These short root plants are drying up and that is an indication that there is little rainwater because of prolonged periods of no rainfall.” 

El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern associated with the warming of the ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. 

According to Afaese, they need another month or two of observation before the real impact is seen, and he recalled how over the last three years there has been a lot of rain.

But he said this year, there are fewer chances of a cyclone this time round, though the place is dry and there’s an elevated risk of tropical cyclones. 

"For the time being, we are still in the process of collecting data to finalise anything and by the end of this month we will come up with a clear idea of the number of cyclones to be expected during the cyclone season," said Afaese. "Samoa is expected to continue with these dry conditions and low rainfall periods and will collect data to justify their forecast for the next several months. 

"El Niño conditions typically result in increased tropical cyclone activity towards the east and northeast of the Southwest Pacific basin and less activity in the other regions."

Vanuatu and Tonga have already issued El Nino alerts for their countries and their people have been advised to store water and be prepared for extended dry spells. In Samoa, the continuous dry spell could result in low water levels at the dams affecting the water supply.

(Source: Samoa Observer)