Two to four Tropical Cyclones predicted “in the area” for Tutuila

Pago Pago, AMERICAN SAMOA — The National Weather Service Office in Tafuna “predicts” two to four Tropical Cyclones  “in the area within 300 nautical miles from Tutuila” for this cyclone season, which formally begins on Nov. 1 and runs through April 30, according to the Tropical Cyclone Outlook released yesterday by local Weather Service Office.

The federal agency explained that American Samoa will likely see “normal to above normal” tropical cyclone cycle activity for the 2023- 2024 season due to the ongoing El Niño.

“The increase in this forecast, compared to the past three seasons for the Territory, is due to the shift from La Niña to El Niño,” it says.

The Weather Service points out that this Tropical Cyclone Outlook — covering 300 nautical miles from Tutuila — is a general guide to the predicted, overall tropical cyclone activity across the Territory and does not indicate how many of these systems will actually make landfall.

However, the outlook does provide a general idea of how many tropical cyclones could affect American Samoa with peripheral effects such as strong damaging winds, torrential rainfall, and/ or storm surge/ inundation.

The Weather Service also emphasized “safety and disaster preparedness”, saying that it is important to keep in mind that one Tropical Cyclone can devastate a community and it does not take a direct hit to cause significant damage, life-threatening weather or perilous seas.

“Therefore, we always urge residents, visitors and mariners to be prepared prior to the Tropical Cyclone season,” the agency said and direct residents to visit these online sites - https://www.weather.gov/ppg - for the latest forecasts and - FEMA’s Ready.gov - for information on preparedness plans, tips and how to build emergency kits.

Key points stressed by forecasters for local residents:
•  El Niño is forecast to bring an elevated risk of tropical cyclones for American Samoa from November 2023 - April 2024
•  Residents are reminded that it only takes one Tropical Cyclone to cause significant damage to communities
•  Life threatening weather and sea conditions may occur without a direct hit from a Tropical Cyclone.