Govt leaders including governor challenge current population count

Pago Pago, AMERICAN SAMOA — “Recent censuses conducted for American Samoa did not go through scientific- demographic assessments for complete counts,” according to the “Population” section of the 2020 American Samoa Statistical Yearbook recently released by the Commerce Department’s Statistical and Analysis Division.

Examples of assessments cited in the yearbook includes: post- census enumeration; sampled re- enumeration of basic collection units; direct comparison of secondary sources by census collection geography; and other methods of census complete count quality assurances.

The yearbook points out that the COVID-19 Pandemic and its global impacts affected census enumeration in 2020 for the whole United States. In the American Samoa enumeration, the house-to-house personal interviewing halted for about three months due to the lockdown and COVID restrictions.

The last census count of American Samoa, as cited in the yearbook,  showed another drop in the number of residents from 55,519 in 2010 to 49,710 in 2020, despite much higher population estimates derived from historical natural growth (births minus deaths) and travel statistics (arrivals less departures).

“It is another decennial census loss of 5,809 persons. The mid-year population estimate is derived from the Balancing Equation method going back to 1990,” it says.

Data in the yearbook shows population estimate for 2020 — released in July every year by DOC — totaled 57,637.

As previously reported by Samoa News, the drop in 2020 census population count prompted concerns from some local leaders and others in the community who question how the population dropped below 55,000 and that there were expectations for the count to be higher since the American Samoa Commerce Department (ASDOC) mid-year 2020 estimate population — as of July 2020 was 57,637.

The 2021 mid-year estimate dropped down to 51,561 as of July 1, 2021. For the mid-year 2022 population count as of July 1, 2022, the ASDOC report says it’s estimated at 51,269.

In written testimony at the U.S Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources hearing on the state of U.S territories last month, Gov. Lemanu P.S Mauga pointed to the territory’s 2020 population count and other data that weren’t officially released until late 2021 and late 2022.

He said the “significant drop in our population count does not reflect the actual number of residents in American Samoa today.”

The governor pointed out that the Coronavirus pandemic led the Territory to close its borders from 2020 to 2022 and numerous American Samoa residents could not return home within the enumeration period.

“Accordingly, I humbly request an opportunity to recount or consider another population census method on a quinquennial basis for US Territories,” the governor said in the written testimony.

(Quinquennial — means occurring or being done every five years. And this is a process done every five years for the nation’s economic census, including the insular areas.)