Local weather service predicting normal to below normal cyclone activity

Pago Pago, AMERICAN SAMOA — The National Weather Service Office in Tafuna predicts that American Samoa will likely see normal, to below normal, Tropical Cyclone activity for the 2022-23 Tropical Cyclone season, which runs from Nov. 30, 2022 to Apr. 30 of next year.

“Fairly consistent with La Niña conditions, the outlook for American Samoa is 0 to 1 tropical cyclones,” the Weather Service said in a statement over the weekend.

Although La Niña conditions tend to reduce tropical cyclone activity near American Samoa, “we still urge residents and mariners to be fully prepared for this tropical cyclone season,” the Weather Service says.

Forecasters remind residents that one cyclone can devastate a community, and it does not take a direct hit from a tropical storm or a hurricane to cause significant damage, life-threatening weather or perilous seas.

According to the statement, the outlook is a general guide to the overall Tropical Cyclone season activity near the American Samoa basin — extending to 300 nautical miles from the main island of  Tutuila — and does not predict whether, or how many, of these systems will either make landfall or directly impact American Samoa.

The National Weather Service Office in Pago Pago, in collaboration with the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) Nadi, Fiji; Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) continuously monitor weather conditions near the territory by using an array of observations, satellite data and output from complex weather computer models that serve as the basis for tropical cyclone tracks and forecasts.

The last major storm to hit the territory was Tropical Storm Gita in 2018, and a US Presidential Disaster Declaration was issued for the territory, allowing for federal aid to assist both the public and private sector, including individuals and families, whose homes were damaged or destroyed.