DOC’s mid-year population estimate down slightly from 2021

Pago Pago, AMERICAN SAMOA — American Samoa’s 2022 mid-year population is estimated at just over 51,000 — which is slightly lower than the 2021 estimated mid-year count, according the latest data released yesterday by the Statistics & Analysis Division of the ASG Commerce Department.

Samoa News reported in August of last year, based on DOC data, that the territory’s mid-year 2021 population was estimated at 51,561 as of July 1, 2021, according to DOC at the time, which also stated that the estimate was based on the unpublished preliminary count from the 2020 census plus natural growth — which is births minus death, plus net travelers — which is all arrivals less all departures.

For the territory’s mid-year 2020 population it was estimated at 57,637 while the territory’s mid-year 2019 population was estimated at 58,500.

The US Census Bureau released last year the 2020 Census for American Samoa and it shows the population count in 2020 decreased by 10.5% from the 2010 census. As of April 1, 2020, the territory’s population was 49,710, down from the 2010 Census figure of 55,519.

For the mid-year 2022 population count as of July 1, 2022, the DOC report says it’s estimated at 51,269 and the estimate is slightly lower than the 2021 estimate, “mainly because of the continued net-migration and much lower fertility.”

Meanwhile, DOC said that two years after the 2020 enumeration, the U.S Census Bureau has not released the local population demographics, social and economic characteristics and details. And the federal agency plans to release this data in October this year.

Despite the shortcomings with the federal release of census data products, DOC said local and federal programs that are populated-based and dependent on current people counts continue to rely on estimates for grant applications and fulfillment of funding requirements.

Additionally, the 2020 updates of age and sex distribution were critically needed for the COVID-19 pandemic monitoring and mass vaccination distribution efforts to assess the infested population and recovery efforts.

Samoa News will report later this week on DOC data behind the slight decrease in the mid-year 2022 population count estimate.