Cyclone outlook for 2023/ 2024 season

Pago Pago, AMERICAN SAMOA — The tropical cyclone outlook for 2023/2024 predicts that the Samoa archipeligo will likely experience at least one tropical cyclone event in the period from November to April next year.. The typical cyclone season coincides with the summer monsoon, with the most severe storms occurring in the months before May to June and after October to November.

In the past, Samoa has been affected by the foothills of several cyclones, but in the past 12 months, no cyclone has reached the inhabited areas on land. The islands also face other natural hazards, including tsunamis.

The upcoming cyclone season is expected to emulate past cyclone seasons that had similar background climate conditions to the present. The analogue seasons also have out of season cyclones, thus out of season cyclones are also possible this season.

The La Nina phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been well established in the Pacific since October, with an anticipation to continue at least until early 2021 after a peak during December 2020. La Nina typically provides more rainfall than usual for Samoa. Therefore, above average rainfall is favored for Samoa in the coming season, which could potentially increase the risk of landslides and river flashing.

The tropical cyclones are associated with torrential rainfall, flash flooding, flooding of low lying areas, coastal flooding, storm surges, water spouts, and strong to damaging winds.