Am Samoa’s estimated mid-year population count notes increase

Pago Pago, AMERICAN SAMOA — American Samoa’s 2023 mid-year population is estimated at just over 53,000 — an increase from the 2022 estimated mid-year count — with a substantial hike in net travels recorded, due to more visits of relatives and guests workers brought in for cannery/ domestic work.

This is according to data and information released Wednesday afternoon by the Statistics & Analysis Division of the ASG Commerce Department, which compiles the population count.

Samoa News reported in August of last year, based on DOC data, that the territory’s mid- year 2022 population was estimated at 51,269 and the estimate was slightly lower than the 2021 estimate, “mainly because of the continued net-migration and much lower fertility,” according to DOC at the time.

For the mid- year 2023 population count as of July 1, 2023, the DOC report says it’s estimated at 53,331, an increase of about 2,000 from the 2022 estimate, it says. There are 27,092 males and 26,239 females, and roughly 62.7% in ages 16 to 65.

“Still, a significant number of children recorded at 20,233 or 38% of the total population below 19 years old,” the report says.

DOC explained that the new estimate is based on the published official count of the 2020 American Samoa Census five-year age distributions plus natural growth and net travelers. Natural growth is births minus deaths, while net travelers are all arrivals, less all departures.

“Fertility continued to decline while more and more deaths were recorded, resulting in less natural growth of the resident population,” said DOC.

“However, a substantial increase in net travels was recorded due to more visits of relatives/ families and guest workers brought in for cannery/ domestic works despite another net outward movement of the local residents,” it says.

Additionally, age cohort smoothing was applied to age/ sex- specific groups in the Guest Worker permit system, where close to 1,300 workers are currently on board ranging from 10 years to 40+ years.

DOC also provided data in the report on cohort components of the estimate for various users seeking baseline data for funding and program implementations.

Data in the report shows that the age-group with a lowest population estimate is 85- years and over with 156 of them — 54 males and 102 females. The second lowest estimate population age group is 80 to 84 years old, with an estimate 298: 123 male and 175 female.

DOC EXPLAINS

DOC noted that the population estimate is derived from the Balancing Equation Methodology; by adding the natural growth (births minus deaths) and net migration of residents and immigrants to the base population every year.

It also says that historical travel data since 2000 is no longer used in the current population estimate due to much lower counts in the last two censuses. Two reasons why this happens:

• the recording of arrivals and departures could be more consistent, and

• there could be serious undercounts in the last two population counts in 2010 and 2020.

However, DOC said the methodology is maintained by looking at population components, including higher mortality, low fertility, fewer births, continuous outmigration of residents, and new economic initiatives in bringing in cannery workers under the Guest Worker Permits program.

“Net migration is still a challenge in the estimate,” DOC declared. Given the new arrival and departure cards system implemented in 2018, data quality is still deficient because of missing and incomplete forms. Many still need to comply with this travel requirement, and at the same time, frontline government agencies still need to check and verify the forms for completeness.

Nevertheless, DOC said Arrival/ Departure statistics from Immigration showed a continuous outflow of residents while a reciprocal replacement flow occurs with net plus visit relatives/ families and guest workers.

“The dilemma with our resident movement is that these are primarily temporary migrations to the United States, as many visited families and relatives for extended periods but still maintained legal residency in American Samoa,” it says.

The US Census Bureau’s 2020 Census for American Samoa shows a decrease by 10.5% from the 2010 census. As of April 1, 2020, the territory’s population was 49,710, down from the 2010 Census figure of 55,519.

And there have been calls from territorial leaders and others for a possible recount, over concerns of possible under- count of the census count in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND

Non-competitive federal grants allocate funds using a formula to calculate the award amount. Factors such as population count, census data, including the annual appropriation provided by Congress are considered. Concerns in the Territory have focused on such awards being affected by the declining population count and this has led to some ASG officials asking for a ‘recount’ saying the 2020 count was flawed in that it missed a portion of the community, namely illegal aliens.