Am Samoa’s declining population portends problems for the future

Pago Pago, AMERICAN SAMOA — A much lower fertility rate (number of children born per woman of childbearing age) and continued out-migration has been attributed to the slight decreased in American Samoa’s mid-year 2022 population count, which is estimated at 51,269 — a drop of 292 persons from the mid-year 2021 estimate, according to the ASG Commerce Department’s Statistics & Analysis Division report released Tuesday.

Of the total mid-year estimate, DOC data shows slightly more females in the population — at 26,060 compared to males at 25,209. The age group with the estimated highest population is 10 to 14 years old with 5,856 followed by 5-9 age group at 5,638,  while the age group with the lowest estimated population count is 85-years and older with 227.

IMPACT OF FERTILITY RATE

DOC explained that there were only 713 births by mid-year 2022 and 360 deaths resulting in the natural growth of only 353 person. “American Samoa is showing very low fertility that warrants immediate attention to policy assessment and population impact implications,” the report says and explained the impact of low fertility rate.

It points out that population control efforts aim to reduce the birth rate and bring it down to replacement level of two births per woman: a Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of 2.1 per woman of childbearing age.

“At this rate, a population would continually renew itself without growing. However, when the birth rate continues to fall and eventually goes below the 2.1 TFR, it triggers an immediate concern about whether we have reached or bypassed our fertility replacement level,” it says.

Additionally, a continued fertility decline will significantly impact all levels of community living — health, education, economic social and environment. “Sometimes the impacts will be positive, but most likely, the long-term will be negative,” it says.

In 2010, the report says that the TFR was recorded at 3.2 children per woman of childbearing, age 15 to 44; by 2020, the TRF went down to 2.0 children. And the TRF remained at 2.0 in 2021.

“The problem with low fertility [rate] is that it reduces population size not at all ages but among the young,” the report said. “Low fertility produces an age structure that creates momentum for future population decline, a situation that must be stopped at some point if the population is to be demographically sustainable. Also, populations with low fertility can fall in size at a rapid rate.”

“The more prolonged low fertility is maintained, the harder it becomes to reverse population decline. This is the current trend and a grave concern with the population momentum,” said DOC, which went on to explain that to assess population policy and recommendation for improving birth rates, “we need to respond to the immediate impacts of low fertility — namely our shrinking labor forces.”

According to DOC, it is happening already as demands for foreign workers are high and more guest workers are needed to meet cannery labor shortages as well as the construction industry, retail and wholesale, service industry and increased demands for skilled and technical occupations.

“Can low fertility be reversed? We need to know why fertility has fallen to such low levels to answer this,” said DOC, adding that there could be many reasons, but some general statements can be made that warrant further studies.

“The change in economic systems — from a subsistence economy to a cash economy — but recent trends, significant improvements in women’s economic participation and higher academic achievements are the most relevant reasons,” DOC points out.

OUT-MIGRATION

According to DOC, more people are moving out of American Samoa. For example, there were 7,804 mid-year arrivals and 8,449 departures resulting in a net travel of minus 645.

To obtain travel data, DOC is relying on the Immigration Office and the ASG TALOFAPass extractions to obtain travel data for population updates. (TALOFAPass screens entry into the territory).

A new Arrival/ Departure card was implemented in 2018 to capture travel statistics including citizenship, reasons for travel, residency tourism and basic demographic characteristics.

However, DOC said this project was never fully realized due to administrative challenges and program prioritization. Additionally, data quality from the card system “is inferior” and there are a lot of missing and incomplete forms. Furthermore, frontline government agencies are not checking and verifying the documents before acceptance.

DOC went on to examine the concept of international migration and the rules of permanent residency regarding American Samoans, in order to understand the unique relationship between the territory and the U.S on travel entry.

American Samoans travel freely and could live anywhere in the U.S and most of them have been away from land and families for many years but they still hold and claim rights in the territory as their place of birth or parental/ancestral place of birth.

“For this reason, tracking long-term movements of residents and the international classification of long-term migration is difficult to apply to American Samoans,” DOC points out. “No matter how long they live outside of the territory, they are always counted as permanent residents when they arrive in American Samoa.”

For more information on the mid-year population estimates, contact DOC Statistics and Analysis at 633-0120 or email ([email protected]).